Crypto Flows

Indeed a steady start with regards to crypto flows in Q1 2024 thus far. Today we had > 1 bln traded in the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. It's as clear as daylight to me that trying to fade these flows is going to lead to you getting your face ripped off. We haven't even seen rate cuts yet and any kind of turmoil would lead me to believe that crypto will outperform (due to the expansion of liquidity). My intuition suggests that this cycle is going to be a bubble cycle due to these flows and the anticipated participation of everyone and their dog. There is also potential for an Ethereum ETF this summer and I have my discretionary price targets this cycle where I will take some chips off the table where I feel we have reached "irrational exuberance". Let's see how this plays out and most importantly enjoy the journey.

 

My professional crypto macro journey going into 2024!

 

Its been a big macro year especially given the moves within the crypto space within this last quarter. 

 For transparency and authenticity, a snapshot of my equity curve within the crypto book is posted below as fintwit is a space with a lot of noise periodically. Initially I created my Coinbase account in Q1 2020 and put an initial investment into my account (thinking of it like a safety net, buffer, pool etc) Wasn't too sure of this space until Q4 2020/Q1 2021 where I dabbled within this asset class and put some money to work from my account. Hope I did it during the "covid crash" but just wasn't convinced. Hindsight is a great tool!

 Furthermore a lot of professionals were calling this space "shit coins" and "waiting for zero" etc and now one talking head is planning on creating a stable token!

 Even have had a professional talk about vol drag trying to discredit me on twitter. Its so important to be independent in the investing game and follow your own protocol as you are responsible for your own capital not some third party. Time horizon matters!

 Therefore I have been through a cycle already where my initial investments went to shit by the year 2022. However by having endurance and being a long term investor in addition to having dry powder I was able to deploy further capital and dollar cost average at the lows and  during the summer of this year. You can see how volatile this segment of the market is. My expectations are for 2024 to be a wild crypto year and wouldn't be surprised if new all time highs were hit in digital assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL etc given the liquidity dynamics and forward looking metrics. Feel its a big year ahead given the political nature in the US and liquidity being a fundamental driver of asset prices. We have the BTC halving and expectations about ETF approvals. BTC has a rhythm of doubling in price 6 months after the halving (April 2024) and we expect 20% to 30% corrections in the book but nothing similar to 2022 next year. No doubt there will be individuals who are resentful about this space but as the saying goes don't fight the trend. Price discovery will also be interesting. Indeed its been a fun and a roller coaster of an experience but I wouldn't change any of it. See you in 2024!
 

 

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