My professional crypto macro journey going into 2024!

 

Its been a big macro year especially given the moves within the crypto space within this last quarter. 

 For transparency and authenticity, a snapshot of my equity curve within the crypto book is posted below as fintwit is a space with a lot of noise periodically. Initially I created my Coinbase account in Q1 2020 and put an initial investment into my account (thinking of it like a safety net, buffer, pool etc) Wasn't too sure of this space until Q4 2020/Q1 2021 where I dabbled within this asset class and put some money to work from my account. Hope I did it during the "covid crash" but just wasn't convinced. Hindsight is a great tool!

 Furthermore a lot of professionals were calling this space "shit coins" and "waiting for zero" etc and now one talking head is planning on creating a stable token!

 Even have had a professional talk about vol drag trying to discredit me on twitter. Its so important to be independent in the investing game and follow your own protocol as you are responsible for your own capital not some third party. Time horizon matters!

 Therefore I have been through a cycle already where my initial investments went to shit by the year 2022. However by having endurance and being a long term investor in addition to having dry powder I was able to deploy further capital and dollar cost average at the lows and  during the summer of this year. You can see how volatile this segment of the market is. My expectations are for 2024 to be a wild crypto year and wouldn't be surprised if new all time highs were hit in digital assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL etc given the liquidity dynamics and forward looking metrics. Feel its a big year ahead given the political nature in the US and liquidity being a fundamental driver of asset prices. We have the BTC halving and expectations about ETF approvals. BTC has a rhythm of doubling in price 6 months after the halving (April 2024) and we expect 20% to 30% corrections in the book but nothing similar to 2022 next year. No doubt there will be individuals who are resentful about this space but as the saying goes don't fight the trend. Price discovery will also be interesting. Indeed its been a fun and a roller coaster of an experience but I wouldn't change any of it. See you in 2024!
 

 

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Energy, technicals, oil

Just a quick note in regards to energy specifically relating to Oil. Below is a  chart and once the gap is filled my expectations are for oil to rally being majorly bullish this space. Enjoy!

 

 

 

Q1 2023 Macro summary

 Its been a while since I last posted and promise the next will be at more speed.

Financial markets have been quite choppy since the so called banking crises took hold starting with SVB simply due to rates. However the BTFP outlined by the FED helped to quell fears of bank runs.

Crypto has been an outperformer this year relative to other asset classes and the liquidity metrics prove this to be the case. Energy and precious metals also look interesting given the recent OPEC communication with regards to cuts and the more robust growth outlook which has underpinned the performance of silver. A softer dollar has also helped.

In my own portfolio I am waiting for Nat Gas at around the base line level of 2000 and then looking to buy in size. Its all about preparing for the next bull market.

 

 

 

 Will be interesting to see FED policy in May with a potential to pause but all the data suggests they might go for a 25bp hike and then nip it in the bud.

Hope everyone is enjoying the easter weekend and markets should be fun next week.