Macro Analysis
Its been several years since I last posted so I dont think it will be that long this time around. Indeed 2020 has been a huge year for financial markets given the corona virus pandemic that has taken place. From having seen the fastest bear market in equities, negative oil prices and unprecedented fiscal support from governments to volatility at 2008 GFC levels. Its been a year of wild swings with a number of outsized options payoffs (*100) and structures (puts and calls) if you were lucky within the commodities, equities and volatility space. Always good to have lottery tickets within the long/short book.
Going forward the next 1 - 2 years will be important for markets and the global economy with inflation rearing its head. Currently we are still awaiting the result of the US election where a Biden victory will ensue a non-friendly market environment even with fiscal support due to higher taxes, regulation and possible further lockdowns within the USA. Markets have initially rallied off this event but I think the smart money will fade this. A Trump victory and it's off to the races. Lets see how this plays out. See you on the other side!
